THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE AND CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION PRICES USING THE AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED TIME GAP MODEL AND THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

Abstract

The research aimed to determine the relation between the dollar exchange the Yemen riyal and the prices the value of crude oil production in the Republic of Yemen during the period (1996 -2013). a long term equilibrium relationship was reached between them using the -ARDL- method which means that they do not move away from each other so much that they show similar behavior. In the error correcting model, the test for correcting the estimated negative and model error statistically indicated that the departure of this relationship from equilibrium in the long term is corrected every year by (67.7379%) and that the causal relation is from crude oil production prices to the dollar exchange rate against the Yemen riyal.